Book
Bijak J (ed.) and Contributors (2024) From Uncertainty to Policy: A Guide to Migration Scenarios. Cheltenham: Edward Elgar. Open Access via https://doi.org/10.4337/9781035319800. Book launch video available on https://youtu.be/rWXvcawZTfk.
Academic Journal Articles
Erdal MB, Mjelva MB and Tollefsen AF (2025) Conceptualizing and Measuring Conflict-Related Determinants of Migration. Journal of Immigrant & Refugee Studies, Online first, 1–16. https://doi.org/10.1080/15562948.2025.2499816
Czaika M, Bohnet H and Soto-Nishimura A (2025) Spatial Dependence of European Immigration Flows. Population and Development Review, Early view. https://doi.org/10.1111/padr.70011
Barker J and Bijak J (2025) Mixed-frequency VAR: a new approach to forecasting migration in Europe using macroeconomic data. Data and Policy, 7: e3. https://doi.org/10.1017/dap.2024.82
Czaika M, Bohnet H, Zardo F and Bijak J (2024) European Migration Governance in the Context of Uncertainty. International Migration, 62(6): 93–110. https://doi.org/10.1111/imig.13308
Soto Nishimura A and Czaika M (2024) Exploring Migration Determinants: A Meta-Analysis of Migration Drivers and Estimates. Journal of International Migration and Integration, 25(2): 621–643. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12134-023-01091-z
Di Iasio V and Wahba J (2024) The Determinants of Refugees’ Destinations: Where do refugees locate within the EU? World Development, 177: 106533. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2024.106533
Czaika M, Bohnet H and Zardo F (2024) Categorical and spatial interlinkages within the European migration policy mix. European Union Politics, 25(1), 173–196. https://doi.org/10.1177/14651165231209941
Marois G, Potančoková M and González-Leonardo M (2023) Demographic and labor force impacts of future immigration flows into Europe: Does an immigrant’s region of origin matter? Humanities and Social Sciences Communications, 10, 957. https://doi.org/10.1057/s41599-023-02482-4
Mjelva MB and Carling J (2023) Surveys on migration aspirations, plans and intentions: a comprehensive overview [Version 1: approved]. Open Research Europe, 3: 145. https://doi.org/10.12688/openreseurope.15800.1
Boissonneault M and Costa R (2023) Experts’ assessments of migration scenarios between the Middle East & North Africa and Europe. Scientific Data, 10(1), 640. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41597-023-02532-1
Di Iasio V and Wahba J (2023) Expecting Brexit and UK migration: Should I go? European Economic Review, 157: 104484. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.euroecorev.2023.104484
Czaika M, Erdal MB and Talleraas C (2023) Exploring Europe’s external migration policy mix: On the interactions of visa, readmission, and resettlement policies, Journal of Ethnic and Migration Studies, 49(12), 3140–3161. https://doi.org/10.1080/1369183X.2023.2198363
González-Leonardo M, Potančoková M, Yildiz D and Rowe F (2023) Quantifying the impact of COVID-19 on immigration in receiving high-income countries. PLoS ONE 18(1): e0280324. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0280324
Barker E (2022) A timeline of freedom of movement in the European Economic Area [Version 3: approved]. Open Research Europe, 2: 133. https://doi.org/10.12688/openreseurope.15042.3
Czaika M, Bijak J and Prike T (2022) Migration Decision-Making and Its Key Dimensions. The Annals of the American Academy of Political and Social Science 697(1), 15–31. https://doi.org/10.1177/00027162211052233
Petropoulos F, Apiletti A, Assimakopoulos V, Babai MZ, Barrow DK, Ben Taieb S, Bergmeir Ch, Bessa RJ, Bijak J, et al. (2022) Forecasting: Theory and Practice. [Contributed sections on population and migration forecasting]. International Journal of Forecasting, 38(3), 705–871. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2021.11.001
Napierała J, Hilton J, Forster JJ, Carammia M and Bijak J (2022) Toward an Early Warning System for Monitoring Asylum-Related Migration Flows in Europe. International Migration Review, 56(1), 33–62. https://doi.org/10.1177/01979183211035736
Policy Papers and Briefs
Bijak J (2025) Rethinking migration policy: looking through the lens of complexity and uncertainty. UK Academy of Social Sciences (AcSS) Briefing. Accessible via: https://acss.org.uk/publications/rethinking-migration-policy-looking-through-the-lens-of-complexity-and-uncertainty
Bijak J, Vono de Vilhena D, Potančoková M, and the QuantMig Team (2023) White Paper on Migration Uncertainty: Towards Foresight and Preparedness. Population and Policy Discussion Paper, 19, Population Europe. https://population-europe.eu/research/discussion-papers/white-paper-migration-uncertainty
Potančoková M, Marois G and Bijak J (2023) High-Migration Events and Future Labour Force in Europe Population and Policy Brief, No. 39, Population Europe. https://population-europe.eu/research/policy-briefs/high-migration-events-and-future-labour-force-europe
Bijak J and Barker E (2023) As Europe builds resilient labour markets, migration can help – but will not be enough. Population Europe Policy Insight. https://population-europe.eu/research/policy-insights/europe-builds-resilient-labour-markets-migration-can-help-will-not-be/europe-builds-resilient-labour-markets-migration-can-help-will-not-be
Di Iasio V and Wahba J (2023) Navigating uncertainty: Understanding the impact of Brexit on EU migration to the UK. Centre for Population Change Policy Briefing, No. 71. http://www.cpc.ac.uk/docs/2023_PB71_Navigating_uncertainty_Understanding_the_impact_of_Brexit.pdf
Di Iasio V and Wahba J (2023) Seeking asylum in Europe: Where do people go and why? Centre for Population Change Policy Briefing, No. 69. http://www.cpc.ac.uk/docs/2023_PB69_Seeking_asylum_in_Europe_where_do_people_go_and_why.pdf
Di Iasio V and Wahba J (2022) Asylum seekers’ choice of country is mostly driven by personal networks, not economy Population Europe Policy Insight. https://population-europe.eu/research/policy-insights/asylum-seekers-choice-country-mostly-driven-personal-networks-not-economy
Anger S, Bijak J, Bosch P, Czaika M, de Groot D, Miyar Busto M and Wahba J (2022) Attracting Skills and Talent to the EU. What should we focus on? Population and Policy Brief, No. 37. Population Europe. https://population-europe.eu/research/policy-briefs/attracting-skills-and-talent-eu
Wahba J (2022) Can the EU Attract Skills and Talent? Population Europe Policy Insight. https://population-europe.eu/research/policy-insights/can-eu-attract-skills-and-talent
Barker E, Bijak J, Di Iasio V and Wahba J (2022) Why Should We Care about Uncertainty in Migration Flows? Reasons and Challenges from an Economics Perspective. Population and Policy Brief, No. 35 Population Europe. https://www.population-europe.eu/index.php/research/policy-briefs/why-should-we-care-about-uncertainty-migration-flows
Bijak J (2021) Migration Uncertainty: Feature, not a Bug. Population Europe Policy Insight. https://population-europe.eu/research/policy-insights/migration-uncertainty-feature-not-bug
Bijak J, Fähnrich B, Leboeuf L and Vono de Vilhena D (2021) Strengthening evidence-informed policymaking on migration. Population and Policy Brief, No. 32. Population Europe. https://population-europe.eu/research/policy-briefs/strengthening-evidence-informed-policymaking-migration
Barker E and Bijak J (2021) Can One Migration Model Fit All? Population Europe Policy Insight. https://population-europe.eu/research/policy-insights/can-one-migration-model-fit-all
Vono de Vilhena D and Bijak J (2021) Uncertainty in Future Migration Flows: Where Does It Come From? Population and Policy Brief, No. 29. Population Europe. https://population-europe.eu/research/policy-briefs/uncertainty-future-migration-flows-where-does-it-come
Czaika M and Bijak J (2020) Five Facts Everybody Should Know Before Discussing Future Migration Trends. Population Europe Policy Insight. https://population-europe.eu/research/policy-insights/five-facts-everybody-should-know-discussing-future-migration-trends
Bijak J, Czaika M, ed. by D Vono de Vilhena (2020) How Can Europe Better Prepare for Future Migration Movements? Understanding and addressing the root causes of displacements. Population and Policy Brief, No. 26. Population Europe. https://population-europe.eu/research/policy-briefs/how-can-europe-better-prepare-future-migration-movements
Other Publications
Bijak J, Czaika M, Potančoková M, Vono de Vilhena D and the QuantMig Team (2024) New Perspectives for Migration Foresight and Preparedness: Insights from the QuantMig Project. Migration Policy Practice, Vol. XIII (1), 34–40 https://publications.iom.int/system/files/pdf/pub2023-073-el-mpp-50-3rd-issue.pdf
Wahba J and Di Iasio V (2023) Hotels and employment aren’t major ‘pull factors’ for refugees – here’s what really draws people to move. The Conversation, 25 August 2023. https://theconversation.com/hotels-and-employment-arent-major-pull-factors-for-refugees-heres-what-really-draws-people-to-move-211796
Carling J (2021) What Makes People Want to Migrate? One Chart Sums It Up. The Startup, 3 February 2021. https://medium.com/swlh/what-makes-people-want-to-migrate-b91ad7d9ddb0
Bijak J and Czaika M (2020) Black swans and grey rhinos: Migration policy under uncertainty. Migration Policy Practice, Vol. X (4), 14–20 https://publications.iom.int/system/files/pdf/mpp-43.pdf
This work has received funding from the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement No. 870299 QuantMig: Quantifying Migration Scenarios for Better Policy. This document reflects the authors'view and the Research Executive Agency of the European Commission are not responsible for any use that may be made of the information it contains.
